California 2026 Governor Race: Swalwell Surges to the Front
A major new poll has shaken up California's 2026 political landscape. According to a survey by Emerson College Polling and Inside California Politics, conducted March 7–9, 2026, among 1,000 likely California voters, Democratic Congressman Eric Swalwell has emerged as the new frontrunner in the race to replace term-limited Governor Gavin Newsom.
Swalwell, who represents the East Bay area in Congress, now leads the crowded nonpartisan primary with 17% support — up 3 points from February's poll. The race has been notably fluid for months, and this latest shift marks the clearest lead any candidate has held so far.
Full Poll Breakdown: Where Every Candidate Stands
Here is how the California Governor's primary looks heading into the June 2, 2026 election:
- 🟦 Eric Swalwell (D) — 17% (+3 from February)
- 🟥 Steve Hilton (R) — 13% (-4)
- 🟦 Tom Steyer (D) — 11% (+2)
- 🟥 Chad Bianco (R) — 11% (-3)
- 🟦 Katie Porter (D) — 8% (-2)
- 🟦 Antonio Villaraigosa (D) — 3%
- 🟦 Xavier Becerra (D) — 3%
- 🟦 Matt Mahan (D) — 3%
- 🟦 Betty Yee (D) — 2%
- ⬜ Undecided — 25%
The poll carries a credibility interval of ±3 percentage points.
Democrats Consolidating — But Slowly
Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, highlighted a key trend: Democratic voters are beginning to coalesce around Swalwell. His support among registered Democrats climbed from 23% to 27% over the past month. Tom Steyer also gained ground among Democrats, rising from 12% to 16%.
Still, the Democratic field remains dangerously crowded. With nine Democrats competing for votes, party insiders worry that the vote could be so fractured that two Republicans could advance to the November general election — shutting Democrats out entirely under California's top-two primary system.
That fear appears to be fading slightly. Data expert Paul Mitchell's modeling suggests a Democrat-vs.-Republican matchup is the most likely November outcome, but two Republicans still top the field in roughly one-quarter of simulated scenarios.
Republicans Split Between Hilton and Bianco
On the Republican side, the race is essentially a two-man contest. Steve Hilton, the British-born former Fox News commentator, draws 38% support among Republican voters, while Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco follows closely at 34%. Hilton also picks up 12% among independent voters, giving him a broader cross-partisan appeal.
For context, the last Republican to win California's governorship was Arnold Schwarzenegger in 2006. California has backed Democrats in every presidential race since 1992. But the fractured Democratic field has created a rare opening, and both Hilton and Bianco are capitalizing on it.
Independents: The Wild Card at 39% Undecided
Perhaps the most striking figure in the poll is the 39% of independent voters who remain undecided. Among all voters, 25% have yet to make up their minds — a huge bloc that could swing the race in any direction before ballots go out in May.
"It looks like the governor's race is coming a little bit more into focus," Kimball noted, "but with a quarter of likely voters still undecided, anything can happen."
Swalwell Eligibility Question Looms
Not everything is smooth sailing for Swalwell. Questions have been raised about whether he is legally eligible to run, given that he has listed Washington, D.C. as his primary residence for years while representing a California congressional district. A lawsuit challenging his eligibility has already been filed. Swalwell has maintained that he is a California resident, but the issue could become a significant campaign liability if it gains more media attention before June.
What California Voters Care About Most
The same Emerson poll also asked voters about their top priorities heading into the election. The results paint a picture of a state grappling with serious economic and social challenges:
- 💰 Economy — 37% (top issue)
- 🏠 Housing affordability — 22%
- 🗳️ Threats to democracy — 11%
- 🌎 Immigration — 8%
- 🏥 Healthcare — 7%
Additionally, 41% of California voters say they have made a financial tradeoff in order to pay for groceries or food in the past year — a stark indicator of economic pressure felt across the state. A majority, 52%, believe California is headed in the wrong direction.
Governor Newsom and Trump: Approval Ratings
Governor Gavin Newsom holds a 45% job approval rating — up slightly from February — while 40% disapprove. President Donald Trump's numbers in California are starkly different: just 28% approve of his job performance, while 64% disapprove. Among voters who want the next governor to stand up to the Trump administration, Swalwell leads with 25%, followed by Steyer at 15% and Porter at 12%.
Los Angeles Mayor Race 2026: Wide Open with Over Half Undecided
Turning to Los Angeles, the mayoral race is in remarkable flux. The same Emerson poll — which included a subsample of 350 Los Angeles likely voters — found that a majority of Angelenos, 51%, are still undecided about who should be their next mayor. The June 2 primary allows any registered voter to vote, and if no candidate tops 50%, the top two advance to a November 3 runoff.
Karen Bass: Incumbent but Vulnerable
Incumbent Mayor Karen Bass leads the field but with a notably weak showing for a sitting mayor: just 20% support. Her job approval numbers tell a difficult story — only 24% of Los Angeles voters approve of her performance, while 47% disapprove, giving her a net approval rating of roughly -23 points.
Bass has faced sustained criticism over her handling of the devastating Los Angeles wildfires, her controversial trip to Ghana at the time of the emergency, and questions about her administration's use of the Inside Safe homelessness program. On the other hand, she emerged as a vocal opponent of Trump-era ICE raids in the city, which earned her praise from immigrant communities and progressive supporters.
Bass has significant structural advantages: she has raised $2.35 million for her campaign, holds the endorsement of nine city council members, and commands deep connections within organized labor.
Spencer Pratt Surprises at 10%
One of the more unusual developments in the race is the emergence of Spencer Pratt — yes, the reality television personality from "The Hills" — as the second-place candidate at 10%. Pratt entered the race after his home was destroyed in the LA wildfires, and his name recognition from television has translated into surprising early support, particularly among Republican-leaning voters (29% of whom back him).
Nithya Raman: The Progressive Challenger
City Councilmember Nithya Raman (4th District) sits at 9% and represents the most credible progressive challenge to Bass. Raman entered the race at the last minute, just hours before the filing deadline in February, in what political observers described as a "political earthquake." Notably, Raman had previously endorsed Bass before reversing course.
Raman draws particular support from the Democratic left, with 14% of Democratic voters backing her compared to Bass's 27% among the same group. Among independents, a massive 67% remain undecided — a pool of persuadable voters that could dramatically reshape the race.
Other LA Mayor Candidates
- 💼 Adam Miller (entrepreneur) — 4%
- 🏘️ Rae Huang (housing advocate, democratic socialist) — 3%
- ⬜ Undecided — 51%
What's Driving LA Voters?
Los Angeles voters are evenly split on whether the city is heading in the right direction — 50% say yes, 50% say no. The top concerns driving the mayoral race include homelessness (53% of statewide voters say it is getting worse), housing costs, and public safety. The aftermath of the 2025 wildfires also looms large over the campaign.
The Big Picture: What These Polls Tell Us
Both the governor's race and the LA mayor's race share a common theme: extraordinary voter uncertainty. With 25% undecided in the governor's race and 51% undecided in the mayoral contest, the next several weeks of campaigning — including debates, endorsements, and fundraising — will likely be decisive.
For California Democrats, the urgency is real. In the governor's race, the risk of two Republicans advancing under the top-two system is not theoretical. In the mayor's race, Bass's weak approval numbers make a runoff highly likely, and potentially a loss if her rivals consolidate support around one alternative.
The June 2, 2026 primary is shaping up to be one of the most consequential in California's recent history — and the outcome is genuinely unpredictable.
📊 Poll Details: Emerson College Polling / Inside California Politics survey, conducted March 7–9, 2026. California sample: n=1,000 likely voters, credibility interval ±3 points. Los Angeles sample: n=350, credibility interval ±5.2 points. Data weighted by gender, age, and education per U.S. Census parameters.
🔖 Tags: California 2026, Governor Race, Eric Swalwell, Steve Hilton, Karen Bass, LA Mayor 2026, California Primary, 2026 Midterms, Emerson Poll, California Politics
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